It was Weeden this whole time

“OH GOD!  A QUARTERBACK!  HE’S RIGHT THERE TAKE HIM!!!”

“But he isn’t even that good.”

“BUT HE COULD BE!  HE COULD BE THE NEXT JOHN ELWAY!”

“Or he could be JaMarcus Russell.”

“BUT… HE’S A QUARTERBACK!”

The above is a conversation (word-for-word obviously) at least half the NFL teams encountered in their draft day war room last week.  It’s inevitable.  Today’s NFL is so dependent on top talent QB that if you don’t have one, you better get one immediately.  For some that means doling out the cash in free agency or working the trade machine, but for the rest it comes down to the draft.

But what continues to amaze me is how so many GMs ignore the fact there isn’t enough good QBs to fill that need.  Even in a league with more 4000 yard passers than ever, half the teams still toil with unsatisfactory field generals.  The spectrum has simply grown wider.  So at the draft, those teams will go out of their way – sometimes wayyy out of their way – to draft someone on even the slightest chance they’ll be good.

Even if he’s not a quarterback…

But what’s even more amazing is how no one seems to blame them anymore; such is the way of the new NFL.  Last year, the Tennessee Titans selected Jake Locker with the 8th selection, the Jacksonville Jaguars took Blaine Gabbert with the 10th pick and the Minnesota Vikings grabbed Christian Ponder with the 12th.  It’s too early to tell, but they are the front runners for last year’s “Overdrafted Quarterback Award.”  It’s extremely unlikely all three will be consistent starters, especially since the next draft – this draft – provided the same speculation.

This year there are two candidates for the “OQA.”  Ryan Tannehill, taken 8th by the Dolphins, and Brandon Wheedon (22 by Cleveland) were both projected at the end or entirely outside of the first round earlier in the year.  But as always, the leadup to the draft rocketed their value into the first round.  To be nominated for the award, I like to limit it to 1st round quarterbacks only.  You’ll notice I didn’t include Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, because their draft positions pretty well matched their draft projections from the end of the college football season.

Anyway, in regards to the guys above, it could work out; you can convince me both Tannehill and Wheedon are better than last years equivalents.  Or it could be a wasted first round pick that their franchises could’ve used  to select any of the other eleven starting positions.

Alot of my angst stems from the Vikings’ (my favorite team, against better judgement) Christian Ponder pick last year.  I come from the school of thought which believes the best way to build a team is from the lines out; if you have holes on the O-line and/or D-line, start there.  So when the Vikes went after Ponder with the 12th pick, with plenty of other positions to fill (like the O-line) it was infuriating.  Not because I don’t like Ponder – I do – but because it’s irresponsible to bring in a project QB when you don’t have the talent around him for him to succeed.  Colt McCoy is a recent example of this, but at least the Browns had the sense to draft him in the 3rd round.

Just a real sledge hammer short of Colt McCoy’s actual job in 2 years

The hole in my argument is the success of many of the OQA candidates.  Dante Culpepper, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger are a few who come to mind.   Ultimately, it’s impossible to tell who will be good, but there a few ways to make a good guess.  First of all, look at the team who’s doing the drafting.  Ben Roethlisberger was drafted by a Pittsburgh Steelers team coming off their worst season in years, but they still had a ton of pieces in place.  Sure enough, he thrived in his rookie season en route to a Superbowl.  Second, simply compare the guy to other draft classes.  It sounds simple, but it’s weird how teams will forget the relativity of a draft class: just because someone is the best in Year X doesn’t mean he isn’t average when you include the guys in Years Y and Z.

Back to Ponder.  The Vikings clearly like him.  Maybe they really do think he’s comparable to not only Cam Newton and the other 2011 QBs but the ones drafted before him too.  And to be fair, they were just a year removed from going to the NFC Championship game, so they had decent pieces around Ponder.  Plus, Donovan McNabb wasn’t supposed to stink as much as he did, resulting in Ponder getting promoted earlier than desired.  Still, the risk-reward is questionable with these guys.  Their like new cars, once you drive them off the lot their value is immediately and significantly less.  Meaning if it doesn’t work out, you’ll be lucky to get anything for him in a trade.

For Sale: Used Ferrari 458. $100 or Best Offer!

Even if the player was a very high pick, one year of average or poor play can scare teams away for good, probably because they can just pick a “franchise quarterback” of their own in the next draft.  Which brings me to my final point: why reach for a quarterback when the next year will provide you with another one of the same or greater potential?  Or at least the same or greater hype.  Every year the quarterback class is pumped up to the point where there’s at least a couple of “franchise quarterbacks.”  Even if the teams know better, the fans don’t.  This is important.  If you’re an NFL GM with an expiring contract or a string of unsuccessful seasons, why wouldn’t you draft one of these hyped up QBs to at least buy you some time.  The fans will talk themselves into the guy and you’ll have all season to look forward to selecting another 1st round QB at next year’s draft.  We all like to think GMs are above such things and will put the team and their fans first.  Sadly, many of them have conversations like this:

“OH MAN, ANOTHER QB!  LET’S TAKE HIM!”

“But we drafted one last year.  Shouldn’t we give another year or two before we replace him?”

“UHHH NO THAT BUM IS FINISHED!!  THIS GUY IS THE NEXT PEYTON MANNING!”

“Or -”

“- BESIDES, I NEED TO BUY THAT FERRARI 458 I SAW FOR SALE!”